What is the Relative vs. Absolute flaw?

Confusing a comparative quality with an absolute status. Example: 'Apples are healthier than donuts, therefore eating five apples is healthy.' An item can be relatively superior without being absolutely good.

What is the Confounding Third Variable flaw?

Attributing a direct causal link between two variables when an underlying third factor Z independently drives both. Example: Ice cream sales and drowning rates correlate, but both are caused by hot summer weather.

What is Survivorship Bias in argumentative reasoning?

Drawing conclusions by analyzing only the entities that successfully passed a selection process while ignoring the entities that failed and were eliminated (e.g., studying only successful startups).

What is the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?

Inferring a causal connection solely from temporal succession: 'Event B occurred after Event A, therefore Event A caused Event B.' Sequence does not prove consequence.

What is the Incomplete / Shifting Comparison flaw?

Claiming an entity is 'better', 'faster', or 'cheaper' without specifying what it is being compared against, or switching baseline metrics mid-argument.

What is the fundamental Correlation vs. Causation flaw in logical reasoning?

Concluding that factor X caused outcome Y solely because X and Y are correlated. This overlooks: (1) Reverse causation (Y caused X); (2) A confounding third variable Z causing both X and Y; and (3) Coincidence or spurious correlation.

What is the False Dichotomy (False Dilemma) flaw?

Treating two possibilities as exhaustive and mutually exclusive ('Either we raise taxes or schools will shut down') while ignoring viable middle-ground or alternative solutions.

What is the Small Sample Size (Hasty Generalization) flaw?

Drawing a broad generalization about a population from a sample that is too small to rule out random variation (e.g., 'Three patients recovered after taking herb X, so herb X cures the illness').

What is the Self-Selection Bias flaw?

Relying on voluntary response samples (e.g., voluntary customer surveys, call-in polls), where participants choose whether to respond, disproportionately attracting individuals with strong negative or positive emotional biases.

What is the Sunk Cost Fallacy?

Justifying the continuation of a failing project based on past unrecoverable resources already spent, rather than evaluating prospective future marginal costs and returns.

What is the 'Failure to Consider Disincentives / Feedback' flaw?

Assuming that individuals will continue their exact baseline behavior after a new tax or regulation is imposed, ignoring behavioral adaptation.

What is an Appeal to Inappropriate Authority?

Relying on the testimony or opinion of an expert whose professional training is outside the specific domain under debate.

What is the Gambler's Fallacy?

Believing that past independent random events alter the probability of future random events (e.g., 'The coin landed on heads 5 times in a row, so tails is due next').

What is Circular Reasoning (Begging the Question)?

An argument whose conclusion merely rephrases or presupposes the truth of one of its premises. The premise and conclusion are logically identical in substance.

What is the 'Definitional / Tautological Defense' flaw?

Altering the definition of a term mid-argument to protect a claim from empirical refutation (the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy).

What is the Absence of Evidence as Evidence of Absence flaw?

Concluding that a claim is false simply because it has not yet been conclusively proven true, or concluding a claim is true simply because it has not yet been disproven.

What is the Fallacy of Composition (Part-to-Whole)?

Assuming that because every individual component of an entity possesses a specific characteristic, the combined whole must possess that same characteristic (e.g., 'Every player on the team is an all-star, so the team must be unbeatable').

What is the Fallacy of Division (Whole-to-Part)?

Assuming that because a collective whole has a certain property, each individual part or member must also possess that property (e.g., 'The symphony is loud, so the piccolo soloist must be loud').

What is an Ad Hominem (Source Argument) fallacy?

Attacking the advocate's background, financial motives, personal life, or credibility rather than addressing the factual evidence and logical structure of their argument.

What is the Percent vs. Absolute Amount flaw in statistical reasoning?

Inferring a change in absolute numbers from a change in percentage rate, or vice versa, without considering the total base size. Example: A company's market share percentage rose from 10% to 20%, but if total industry sales dropped by 75%, absolute units sold decreased.

What is the Appeal to Popularity (Ad Populum) flaw?

Arguing that a proposition is factually true or morally right simply because a majority of people believe it or practice it.

What is the False Analogy (Weak Analogy) fallacy?

Inferring that because two situations or entities share certain similarities, they must also be alike in another respect despite critical, outcome-relevant differences between them.

What is the Temporal Extrapolation flaw in predictive arguments?

Assuming without justification that because a trend or condition held in the past, it will continue unchanged into the present or future despite changing circumstances.

What is the Reverse Causation flaw in causal arguments?

Assuming that X caused Y when the causal direction is actually reversed (Y caused X). Example: Concluding that playing violent video games causes aggression when pre-existing aggression instead leads individuals to choose violent games.

What is the flaw of confusing possibility with probability?

Jumping from the premise that an outcome could possibly happen to the conclusion that the outcome is likely or certain to happen.

What constitutes an Unrepresentative / Biased Sample flaw?

Generalizing from a sample that is atypical of the population with respect to the trait being studied, systematically skewing results (e.g., surveying only daytime gym attendees about nationwide exercise habits).

What is the Absolute Count vs. Likelihood flaw?

Concluding that group A is more likely to experience event X than group B simply because group A has a higher absolute count of events, ignoring differences in total population sizes.

What is the Overlooking Alternative Explanations flaw?

Asserting that a specific hypothesis is the sole cause of an observed event without ruling out other equally plausible explanations.

What is the 'Net vs. Gross' flaw in financial arguments?

Inferring an increase in total profit solely from an increase in gross revenues, overlooking corresponding or larger increases in overhead expenses.

What is a Straw Man fallacy?

Distorting, exaggerating, or misrepresenting an opponent's actual argument into an extreme, ridiculous caricature that is easy to refute.

What is the flaw of equating a lack of certainty with impossibility?

Concluding that an event will not or cannot happen simply because an opponent cannot demonstrate with 100% certainty that it will happen.

What is the Equivocation (Semantic Shift) flaw?

Using the same word or phrase with two distinct, conflicting definitions in different parts of the argument (e.g., shifting between 'public interest' as common welfare vs what the public is interested in).

Causal Fallacies, Statistical Biases & Informal Reasoning Flaws

32 critical-thinking review cards on correlation versus causation, reverse causation, confounding variables, survivorship and self-selection biases, rate-versus-count errors, part–whole fallacies, equivocation, sunk-cost reasoning, and the gambler's fallacy.

Level: basic
Languages: en → en
Cards: 32
Markdown: Causal Fallacies, Statistical Biases & Informal Reasoning Flaws (.md)

Flashcards (32)

#	Front (Term / Question)	Back (Definition / Answer)
1	What is the Relative vs. Absolute flaw?	Confusing a comparative quality with an absolute status. Example: 'Apples are healthier than donuts, therefore eating five apples is healthy.' An item can be relatively superior without being absolutely good.
2	What is the Confounding Third Variable flaw?	Attributing a direct causal link between two variables when an underlying third factor Z independently drives both. Example: Ice cream sales and drowning rates correlate, but both are caused by hot summer weather.
3	What is Survivorship Bias in argumentative reasoning?	Drawing conclusions by analyzing only the entities that successfully passed a selection process while ignoring the entities that failed and were eliminated (e.g., studying only successful startups).
4	What is the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy?	Inferring a causal connection solely from temporal succession: 'Event B occurred after Event A, therefore Event A caused Event B.' Sequence does not prove consequence.
5	What is the Incomplete / Shifting Comparison flaw?	Claiming an entity is 'better', 'faster', or 'cheaper' without specifying what it is being compared against, or switching baseline metrics mid-argument.
6	What is the fundamental Correlation vs. Causation flaw in logical reasoning?	Concluding that factor X caused outcome Y solely because X and Y are correlated. This overlooks: (1) Reverse causation (Y caused X); (2) A confounding third variable Z causing both X and Y; and (3) Coincidence or spurious correlation.
7	What is the False Dichotomy (False Dilemma) flaw?	Treating two possibilities as exhaustive and mutually exclusive ('Either we raise taxes or schools will shut down') while ignoring viable middle-ground or alternative solutions.
8	What is the Small Sample Size (Hasty Generalization) flaw?	Drawing a broad generalization about a population from a sample that is too small to rule out random variation (e.g., 'Three patients recovered after taking herb X, so herb X cures the illness').
9	What is the Self-Selection Bias flaw?	Relying on voluntary response samples (e.g., voluntary customer surveys, call-in polls), where participants choose whether to respond, disproportionately attracting individuals with strong negative or positive emotional biases.
10	What is the Sunk Cost Fallacy?	Justifying the continuation of a failing project based on past unrecoverable resources already spent, rather than evaluating prospective future marginal costs and returns.
11	What is the 'Failure to Consider Disincentives / Feedback' flaw?	Assuming that individuals will continue their exact baseline behavior after a new tax or regulation is imposed, ignoring behavioral adaptation.
12	What is an Appeal to Inappropriate Authority?	Relying on the testimony or opinion of an expert whose professional training is outside the specific domain under debate.
13	What is the Gambler's Fallacy?	Believing that past independent random events alter the probability of future random events (e.g., 'The coin landed on heads 5 times in a row, so tails is due next').
14	What is Circular Reasoning (Begging the Question)?	An argument whose conclusion merely rephrases or presupposes the truth of one of its premises. The premise and conclusion are logically identical in substance.
15	What is the 'Definitional / Tautological Defense' flaw?	Altering the definition of a term mid-argument to protect a claim from empirical refutation (the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy).
16	What is the Absence of Evidence as Evidence of Absence flaw?	Concluding that a claim is false simply because it has not yet been conclusively proven true, or concluding a claim is true simply because it has not yet been disproven.
17	What is the Fallacy of Composition (Part-to-Whole)?	Assuming that because every individual component of an entity possesses a specific characteristic, the combined whole must possess that same characteristic (e.g., 'Every player on the team is an all-star, so the team must be unbeatable').
18	What is the Fallacy of Division (Whole-to-Part)?	Assuming that because a collective whole has a certain property, each individual part or member must also possess that property (e.g., 'The symphony is loud, so the piccolo soloist must be loud').
19	What is an Ad Hominem (Source Argument) fallacy?	Attacking the advocate's background, financial motives, personal life, or credibility rather than addressing the factual evidence and logical structure of their argument.
20	What is the Percent vs. Absolute Amount flaw in statistical reasoning?	Inferring a change in absolute numbers from a change in percentage rate, or vice versa, without considering the total base size. Example: A company's market share percentage rose from 10% to 20%, but if total industry sales dropped by 75%, absolute units sold decreased.
21	What is the Appeal to Popularity (Ad Populum) flaw?	Arguing that a proposition is factually true or morally right simply because a majority of people believe it or practice it.
22	What is the False Analogy (Weak Analogy) fallacy?	Inferring that because two situations or entities share certain similarities, they must also be alike in another respect despite critical, outcome-relevant differences between them.
23	What is the Temporal Extrapolation flaw in predictive arguments?	Assuming without justification that because a trend or condition held in the past, it will continue unchanged into the present or future despite changing circumstances.
24	What is the Reverse Causation flaw in causal arguments?	Assuming that X caused Y when the causal direction is actually reversed (Y caused X). Example: Concluding that playing violent video games causes aggression when pre-existing aggression instead leads individuals to choose violent games.
25	What is the flaw of confusing possibility with probability?	Jumping from the premise that an outcome could possibly happen to the conclusion that the outcome is likely or certain to happen.
26	What constitutes an Unrepresentative / Biased Sample flaw?	Generalizing from a sample that is atypical of the population with respect to the trait being studied, systematically skewing results (e.g., surveying only daytime gym attendees about nationwide exercise habits).
27	What is the Absolute Count vs. Likelihood flaw?	Concluding that group A is more likely to experience event X than group B simply because group A has a higher absolute count of events, ignoring differences in total population sizes.
28	What is the Overlooking Alternative Explanations flaw?	Asserting that a specific hypothesis is the sole cause of an observed event without ruling out other equally plausible explanations.
29	What is the 'Net vs. Gross' flaw in financial arguments?	Inferring an increase in total profit solely from an increase in gross revenues, overlooking corresponding or larger increases in overhead expenses.
30	What is a Straw Man fallacy?	Distorting, exaggerating, or misrepresenting an opponent's actual argument into an extreme, ridiculous caricature that is easy to refute.
31	What is the flaw of equating a lack of certainty with impossibility?	Concluding that an event will not or cannot happen simply because an opponent cannot demonstrate with 100% certainty that it will happen.
32	What is the Equivocation (Semantic Shift) flaw?	Using the same word or phrase with two distinct, conflicting definitions in different parts of the argument (e.g., shifting between 'public interest' as common welfare vs what the public is interested in).