In Immanuel Kant's deontological ethics, what is the First Formulation of the 'Categorical Imperative'?

'Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.'

In John Stuart Mill's Utilitarianism, what is the 'Harm Principle' in political philosophy?

The only legitimate purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against their will, is to prevent harm to others.

What is 'Chesterton's Fence' as a principle of institutional and systems reform?

Do not remove a rule, law, or safeguard ('a fence') until you first understand why it was put there in the first place.

What is the 'Motte and Bailey' rhetorical fallacy?

Conflating two positions: advancing a controversial, sweeping claim (the 'bailey'), then retreating to a trivial, easily defensible truism (the 'motte') when challenged.

What is the 'Base Rate Fallacy' (base rate neglect) in medical diagnostics and probability?

Ignoring the prior prevalence (base rate) of a condition when interpreting a diagnostic test's sensitivity and specificity, leading to gross overestimation of positive predictive value for rare diseases.

In Thomas Kuhn's 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions', what is a 'Paradigm Shift'?

A fundamental change in the underlying assumptions, exemplars, and conceptual framework of a scientific discipline when anomalies accumulate beyond what 'normal science' can resolve.

What is the 'Lindy Effect' regarding the future life expectancy of non-perishable ideas, books, and technologies?

Named after Lindy's delicatessen (and formalized by Benoit Mandelbrot and Nassim Nicholas Taleb), the Lindy Effect holds that for non-perishable cultural or technological artifacts under a Pareto-like survival distribution, expected remaining lifespan increases proportionally with current age.

What is the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy (appeal to purity)?

Protecting a universal generalization from counterexamples by arbitrarily redefining the group criteria ad hoc to exclude the counterexample.

What is the difference between 'Affirming the Consequent' (formal fallacy) and 'Modus Ponens' (valid inference)?

Modus Ponens (If P then Q; P; therefore Q) is deductively valid. Affirming the Consequent (If P then Q; Q; therefore P) is invalid because Q could have other causes.

In Aristotelian ethics, what is 'Eudaimonia' and the 'Doctrine of the Golden Mean'?

Eudaimonia is human flourishing through rational activity in accordance with virtue; moral virtue lies at the context-sensitive mean between the extremes of deficiency and excess.

In Stoic philosophy (Epictetus, Marcus Aurelius, Seneca), what is the 'Dichotomy of Control'?

Distinguishing sharply between things within our direct power (our own judgments, intentions, and actions) and externals outside our control (outcomes, reputation, fortune).

What is Bayes' Theorem and how does it update prior beliefs with new evidence?

P(H|E) = [P(E|H) · P(H)] / P(E): the posterior probability of hypothesis H given evidence E equals the likelihood P(E|H) times the prior P(H), divided by the marginal probability of the evidence P(E).

What is 'Loss Aversion' in Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory?

In Prospect Theory, losses loom larger than equivalent gains from a reference point: the disutility of losing a given amount exceeds the utility of gaining the same amount (often estimated around 1.5x to 2.5x in classic monetary-gamble studies, though the ratio varies across contexts).

What is the 'Fundamental Attribution Error' (correspondence bias) in social psychology?

The tendency to overemphasize internal dispositional or personality traits and underestimate situational pressures when explaining other people's behavior. (The related actor–observer asymmetry contrasts how people explain others' actions versus their own.)

What is the 'Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy' in epidemiology and data mining (p-hacking)?

Cherry-picking random clusters in data after the fact and drawing the 'target' around them to claim a statistically significant causal pattern.

What is 'Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc' ('after this, therefore because of this')?

Assuming that because Event B followed Event A in time, Event A must have caused Event B, ignoring confounding factors or coincidence.

In Eastern philosophy, what are the 'Four Noble Truths' and the 'Eightfold Path' in Buddhism?

The truth of suffering (dukkha), its origin in craving/attachment (samudaya), its cessation (nirodha), and the Eightfold Path of ethical conduct, mindfulness, and wisdom leading to cessation.

In John Rawls' 'A Theory of Justice', what is the 'Veil of Ignorance' in the Original Position?

A thought experiment in which principles of justice are chosen without knowing one's own class, wealth, talents, or social status, leading rational agents to protect the least advantaged (Maximin rule).

What is 'Confirmation Bias' and what active cognitive strategy counteracts it?

Searching for, interpreting, and recalling information in a way that confirms pre-existing beliefs; counteracted by actively seeking disconfirming evidence ('red-teaming' or pre-mortem analysis).

What is the 'Pareto Principle' (power-law 80/20 distribution) vs. a Gaussian normal distribution?

In a power-law (Pareto) distribution, a small fraction of inputs (~20%) generates the vast majority of outcomes (~80%), with fat tails where extreme events dominate the mean.

What is the 'Tu Quoque' ('you too' / appeal to hypocrisy) fallacy?

Deflecting criticism or refuting a logical argument by pointing out that the speaker fails to act consistently with their own conclusion, which does not invalidate the argument's premises.

In Confucian philosophy (Analects / Lunyu), what is the relationship between 'Ren' (仁) and 'Li' (礼)?

Ren (humaneness, benevolence, empathy) is the inner moral virtue, while Li (ritual propriety, ethical etiquette, social harmony) is its outward expression in human relationships.

What is 'Hanlon's Razor' in decision analysis and interpersonal judgment?

'Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, neglect, or systemic misunderstanding.'

What is Karl Popper's criterion of 'Falsifiability' for demarcating empirical science from non-science?

A hypothesis or theory is scientific only if it makes risky predictions that can, in principle, be refuted by a conceivable empirical observation or experiment.

What is 'Simpson's Paradox' in statistics and causal inference?

A phenomenon in which a trend or correlation appears in several separate groups of data but disappears or reverses when the groups are combined due to a confounding variable.

What is the difference between 'Denying the Antecedent' (formal fallacy) and 'Modus Tollens' (valid inference)?

Modus Tollens (If P then Q; not Q; therefore not P) is deductively valid. Denying the Antecedent (If P then Q; not P; therefore not Q) is invalid.

What is 'Hindsight Bias' ('I-knew-it-all-along' phenomenon)?

The tendency, after an outcome becomes known, to perceive the event as having been much more predictable beforehand than it actually was.

What is 'Goodhart's Law' (and Campbell's Law) in economics, metrics, and AI alignment?

'When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure'—optimizing directly for a proxy metric distorts behavior and decouples the proxy from the true underlying goal.

What is the 'Framing Effect' in behavioral decision-making?

Choices shift depending on whether identical outcomes are framed as gains or losses relative to a reference point: in Tversky and Kahneman's classic paradigm (for moderate-to-high probabilities), people tend to be risk-averse over gains and risk-seeking over losses.

What is 'Occam's Razor' (the principle of parsimony) in scientific modeling?

Among competing hypotheses that explain the empirical data equally well, prefer the one that introduces the fewest unwarranted assumptions or free parameters.

What is 'Anchoring and Adjustment' in negotiations and numerical estimation?

Relying too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the 'anchor') and making insufficient adjustments away from that initial value.

What is the 'Ecological Fallacy' in sociology and statistics?

Making inferences about the nature or behavior of specific individuals based solely on aggregate statistics collected for the group to which those individuals belong.

Cognitive Biases, Epistemology, Statistical Paradoxes & World Philosophy

32 advanced critical-thinking and philosophy review cards on formal logic, Popperian falsifiability, Kuhnian paradigms, Bayes' theorem, base-rate neglect, Simpson's paradox, Prospect Theory heuristics and biases, informal fallacies, and Stoic, Aristotelian, Kantian, utilitarian, Rawlsian, Buddhist, and Confucian ethics.

Level: advanced
Languages: en → en
Cards: 32
Markdown: Cognitive Biases, Epistemology, Statistical Paradoxes & World Philosophy (.md)

Flashcards (32)

#	Front (Term / Question)	Back (Definition / Answer)
1	In Immanuel Kant's deontological ethics, what is the First Formulation of the 'Categorical Imperative'?	'Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.'
2	In John Stuart Mill's Utilitarianism, what is the 'Harm Principle' in political philosophy?	The only legitimate purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against their will, is to prevent harm to others.
3	What is 'Chesterton's Fence' as a principle of institutional and systems reform?	Do not remove a rule, law, or safeguard ('a fence') until you first understand why it was put there in the first place.
4	What is the 'Motte and Bailey' rhetorical fallacy?	Conflating two positions: advancing a controversial, sweeping claim (the 'bailey'), then retreating to a trivial, easily defensible truism (the 'motte') when challenged.
5	What is the 'Base Rate Fallacy' (base rate neglect) in medical diagnostics and probability?	Ignoring the prior prevalence (base rate) of a condition when interpreting a diagnostic test's sensitivity and specificity, leading to gross overestimation of positive predictive value for rare diseases.
6	In Thomas Kuhn's 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions', what is a 'Paradigm Shift'?	A fundamental change in the underlying assumptions, exemplars, and conceptual framework of a scientific discipline when anomalies accumulate beyond what 'normal science' can resolve.
7	What is the 'Lindy Effect' regarding the future life expectancy of non-perishable ideas, books, and technologies?	Named after Lindy's delicatessen (and formalized by Benoit Mandelbrot and Nassim Nicholas Taleb), the Lindy Effect holds that for non-perishable cultural or technological artifacts under a Pareto-like survival distribution, expected remaining lifespan increases proportionally with current age.
8	What is the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy (appeal to purity)?	Protecting a universal generalization from counterexamples by arbitrarily redefining the group criteria ad hoc to exclude the counterexample.
9	What is the difference between 'Affirming the Consequent' (formal fallacy) and 'Modus Ponens' (valid inference)?	Modus Ponens (If P then Q; P; therefore Q) is deductively valid. Affirming the Consequent (If P then Q; Q; therefore P) is invalid because Q could have other causes.
10	In Aristotelian ethics, what is 'Eudaimonia' and the 'Doctrine of the Golden Mean'?	Eudaimonia is human flourishing through rational activity in accordance with virtue; moral virtue lies at the context-sensitive mean between the extremes of deficiency and excess.
11	In Stoic philosophy (Epictetus, Marcus Aurelius, Seneca), what is the 'Dichotomy of Control'?	Distinguishing sharply between things within our direct power (our own judgments, intentions, and actions) and externals outside our control (outcomes, reputation, fortune).
12	What is Bayes' Theorem and how does it update prior beliefs with new evidence?	P(H\|E) = [P(E\|H) · P(H)] / P(E): the posterior probability of hypothesis H given evidence E equals the likelihood P(E\|H) times the prior P(H), divided by the marginal probability of the evidence P(E).
13	What is 'Loss Aversion' in Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory?	In Prospect Theory, losses loom larger than equivalent gains from a reference point: the disutility of losing a given amount exceeds the utility of gaining the same amount (often estimated around 1.5x to 2.5x in classic monetary-gamble studies, though the ratio varies across contexts).
14	What is the 'Fundamental Attribution Error' (correspondence bias) in social psychology?	The tendency to overemphasize internal dispositional or personality traits and underestimate situational pressures when explaining other people's behavior. (The related actor–observer asymmetry contrasts how people explain others' actions versus their own.)
15	What is the 'Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy' in epidemiology and data mining (p-hacking)?	Cherry-picking random clusters in data after the fact and drawing the 'target' around them to claim a statistically significant causal pattern.
16	What is 'Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc' ('after this, therefore because of this')?	Assuming that because Event B followed Event A in time, Event A must have caused Event B, ignoring confounding factors or coincidence.
17	In Eastern philosophy, what are the 'Four Noble Truths' and the 'Eightfold Path' in Buddhism?	The truth of suffering (dukkha), its origin in craving/attachment (samudaya), its cessation (nirodha), and the Eightfold Path of ethical conduct, mindfulness, and wisdom leading to cessation.
18	In John Rawls' 'A Theory of Justice', what is the 'Veil of Ignorance' in the Original Position?	A thought experiment in which principles of justice are chosen without knowing one's own class, wealth, talents, or social status, leading rational agents to protect the least advantaged (Maximin rule).
19	What is 'Confirmation Bias' and what active cognitive strategy counteracts it?	Searching for, interpreting, and recalling information in a way that confirms pre-existing beliefs; counteracted by actively seeking disconfirming evidence ('red-teaming' or pre-mortem analysis).
20	What is the 'Pareto Principle' (power-law 80/20 distribution) vs. a Gaussian normal distribution?	In a power-law (Pareto) distribution, a small fraction of inputs (~20%) generates the vast majority of outcomes (~80%), with fat tails where extreme events dominate the mean.
21	What is the 'Tu Quoque' ('you too' / appeal to hypocrisy) fallacy?	Deflecting criticism or refuting a logical argument by pointing out that the speaker fails to act consistently with their own conclusion, which does not invalidate the argument's premises.
22	In Confucian philosophy (Analects / Lunyu), what is the relationship between 'Ren' (仁) and 'Li' (礼)?	Ren (humaneness, benevolence, empathy) is the inner moral virtue, while Li (ritual propriety, ethical etiquette, social harmony) is its outward expression in human relationships.
23	What is 'Hanlon's Razor' in decision analysis and interpersonal judgment?	'Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, neglect, or systemic misunderstanding.'
24	What is Karl Popper's criterion of 'Falsifiability' for demarcating empirical science from non-science?	A hypothesis or theory is scientific only if it makes risky predictions that can, in principle, be refuted by a conceivable empirical observation or experiment.
25	What is 'Simpson's Paradox' in statistics and causal inference?	A phenomenon in which a trend or correlation appears in several separate groups of data but disappears or reverses when the groups are combined due to a confounding variable.
26	What is the difference between 'Denying the Antecedent' (formal fallacy) and 'Modus Tollens' (valid inference)?	Modus Tollens (If P then Q; not Q; therefore not P) is deductively valid. Denying the Antecedent (If P then Q; not P; therefore not Q) is invalid.
27	What is 'Hindsight Bias' ('I-knew-it-all-along' phenomenon)?	The tendency, after an outcome becomes known, to perceive the event as having been much more predictable beforehand than it actually was.
28	What is 'Goodhart's Law' (and Campbell's Law) in economics, metrics, and AI alignment?	'When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure'—optimizing directly for a proxy metric distorts behavior and decouples the proxy from the true underlying goal.
29	What is the 'Framing Effect' in behavioral decision-making?	Choices shift depending on whether identical outcomes are framed as gains or losses relative to a reference point: in Tversky and Kahneman's classic paradigm (for moderate-to-high probabilities), people tend to be risk-averse over gains and risk-seeking over losses.
30	What is 'Occam's Razor' (the principle of parsimony) in scientific modeling?	Among competing hypotheses that explain the empirical data equally well, prefer the one that introduces the fewest unwarranted assumptions or free parameters.
31	What is 'Anchoring and Adjustment' in negotiations and numerical estimation?	Relying too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the 'anchor') and making insufficient adjustments away from that initial value.
32	What is the 'Ecological Fallacy' in sociology and statistics?	Making inferences about the nature or behavior of specific individuals based solely on aggregate statistics collected for the group to which those individuals belong.